Carlson Wealth Management although founded in 2010 by John Carlson was actually born during the devastating bear market of 2000-2002. It was the financial and emotional stress of markets that saw declines of 50% or more that drove Mr. Carlson, now a 30 year industry veteran, to search for and ultimately find better answers in how to protect investors from market downturns that can potentially destroy people’s lives.
Our core beliefs
We do not follow basic asset allocation of simply diversifying your investments across multiple areas. We feel this is a strategy that can limit potential growth and downside protection.
Instead we follow an approach that first identifies, then invests in and when needed, rotates among only the strongest areas of the markets. Our goal is to always maintain a diversified portfolio focused on market strength. There is no restriction on where we can invest. If it is showing strength then it is a candidate for inclusion in your portfolio. When it loses strength it is replaced.
We don’t follow the traditional, buy and hold approach of the modern portfolio theory.
Instead we utilize our market trend indicator (the Bearometer) to efficiently identify changes in market trends. Our objective is to protect the value of your portfolio during market declines.
The Majority Opinion: WHERE TO INVEST
Wall Street is full of opinions. An investor who is selling a particular security obviously has a different opinion than the investor who is buying it. The bottom line is that for every Buyer there needs to be a Seller; and for every Seller there must be a Buyer so different opinions are mandatory for markets to function.
We believe a superior approach is to follow only one opinion: The Majority Opinion.
And the only place to find the Majority Opinion is in the Price. It is here where the Buyer and Seller come together. If there are more buyers than there are sellers, the price can only go in one direction…Up, and if there are more Sellers than there are Buyers then the price can only go in one direction…Down. These are the basic tenets of Supply vs. Demand.
Owning assets demonstrating the greatest demand over time has shown to a be a superior investment approach versus the typical asset allocation approach of diversifying across multiple assets. The majority opinion provides us with the first essential element of our strategy – WHERE to invest.
Defense Wins Championships: WHEN TO INVEST
If you know that the markets will occasionally experience down periods would you want your funds protected or left exposed during those times? Just like a football game there are times to be on offense and there are times to be on defense. If you were a football coach you would NEVER play your offense the entire game. When you lost the ball you would bring in your defense.
Traditional money management is typically always on offense. Always invested in the markets. Always at risk.
Tactical money management will adjust to market conditions sometimes playing offense and sometimes playing defense. This is our second essential element to our strategy – WHEN to invest.
The traditional money management approach is commonly referred to as “Buy and Hold”. Risk is believed to be controlled by simply diversifying. We believe that this is NOT a strategy, but a posture. It is the same as a sailor pointing their boat in one direction hoping that the tides and winds will take them to their destination. If you’ve ever sailed then you know that this is the true meaning of hope.
We believe that taking a tactical approach or navigating to your destination is a superior approach to investing. Bear Market declines are devastating both financially and emotionally, and difficult for investors to hold through. Through proper tactical investing both market declines and market advances are identifiable and therefore manageable.